Study Finds Progressive Prosecutors May Increase Property Crime Rates, but Not Violent Crime

The Rise of Progressive Prosecutors and Their Impact on Crime Rates in the US

In recent years, the United States has seen a surge in the number of progressive prosecutors who are focused on criminal justice reform. However, a new study conducted by researchers at the University of Miami, the University of California Irvine (UCI), and Arizona State University (ASU) has shed light on the impact of these prosecutors’ policies on crime rates.

The study, published in Criminology & Public Policy, examined the crime rates in the 100 most populated counties in the US from 2000 to 2020 in relation to the inauguration of progressive prosecutors. The researchers found that the introduction of these prosecutors led to higher relative rates of property crime and total crime, but not to higher relative rates of violent crime.

Progressive prosecutors have been elected on platforms that emphasize reducing incarceration rates and implementing decarceration policies such as diversion from prison or jail, decriminalization of low-level drug crimes, and decreased use of mandatory minimum sentences. While these policies have been praised for reducing mass incarceration and racial disparities, they have also faced criticism for being “soft on crime.”

The study found that areas that transitioned to progressive prosecutors had 7% higher relative rates of total crime, driven by 6.7% higher relative rates of property crime. However, violent crime rates were not statistically higher in jurisdictions with progressive prosecutors, although there were higher relative rates of violent crime from 2014 to 2016.

The researchers noted that the effects of progressive prosecutors on crime rates varied over time, with higher crime rates in the first decade and declining rates afterward. They emphasized that while property crime rates may have increased in areas with progressive prosecutors, overall crime rates fell in both traditional and progressive jurisdictions.

The study’s findings provide valuable insights into the impact of progressive prosecution policies on crime rates and highlight the importance of considering the trade-offs between reducing incarceration and addressing crime rates. Ultimately, the decision on whether these policies are a worthwhile tradeoff lies with local officials and the communities they serve.